UK scientists set to recommend new curbs on AstraZeneca vaccine
Scientists advising the UK government are set to recommend that Britons in their 30s be offered an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine, as declining Covid-19 infection rates mean potential risks from the jab may outweigh the dangers of the disease.
An announcement is due from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation that under-40s should be offered alternative vaccines to the AstraZeneca jab, according to people briefed on the matter.
The expected move follows weeks of fraught discussions inside the JCVI over whether to propose a change in guidance for healthy people between the age of 30 and 39, following reports of rare and sometimes fatal blood clotting.
It would be another blow to Oxford university and the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company, which set out to produce a low-cost vaccine for the world but have faced multiple setbacks.
Britain abruptly changed tack last month on the AstraZeneca jab, the mainstay of its inoculation programme, after the JCVI advised that all healthy individuals under the age of 30 should be offered an alternative vaccine, if available.
Denmark has banned its use altogether while a number of other European countries have limited it to older people as evidence has mounted over the past few weeks that the rare blood-clotting condition is more common in the young.
UK government data released on Thursday showed that a total of 242 cases of the rare blood-clotting events had been identified to date among Britons who have had at least a first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, 33 more than the week before. These 242 cases include 49 deaths.
Two-thirds of the people affected by the condition were under the age of 60.
A study by the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge university released in March showed that only for those adults under 30 were the risks posed by Covid-19 and the AstraZeneca jab comparable, depending on infection rates in the community at any given time.
However, the success of the UK vaccination programme, one of the most effective in the world, has changed the risk benefit calculus. Younger people are now at much less risk from the virus than they were previously.
“All the data has gone much more strongly in the right direction than anyone anticipated,” said Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent university and a member of the JCVI.
“The declining rate of infection has reduced the risk of any delay in vaccination,” added Dingwall, who said he had not been part of any JCVI discussions relating directly to policy towards the AstraZeneca jab because he has been advising the company on combating vaccine hesitancy.
Melanie Saville, director of vaccine research and development for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, which finances and co-ordinates the development of vaccines, said the calculation of risk benefit was influenced by the amount of virus circulating in particular countries.
“In the UK, we’re really in a very low-risk setting at the moment,” she added. “That is something that countries need to look at on an ongoing basis: that benefit-risk profile for these very rare events.”
The latest data from the Office for National Statistics, released last week, showed that virus infections have been dropping sharply across the UK. In England, an estimated 54,200 people tested positive for Covid-19 in the week ending April 24, equating to around 1 in 1,010, and down from 1 in 480 two weeks ago.
Oxford university said that it was for relevant national bodies to decide how to best vaccinate their populations. AstraZeneca did not immediately respond to a request for comment.