Seasonal viruses could overwhelm the NHS this winter, say scientists

The triple pressures of Covid-19, flu and other respiratory illnesses could overwhelm the NHS this winter as the health service struggles to overcome a backlog in non-urgent care, senior scientists say.

The report commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, the UK’s chief scientific adviser, found that in a “reasonable worst-case scenario” influenza and respiratory syncytial virus could reach twice their normal levels this year, as people’s immunity dipped following a period of limited exposure to illnesses during lockdown.

The findings come amid concerns about the NHS’s ability to cope ahead of remaining lockdown restrictions being lifted this month, which is expected to trigger fresh outbreaks and hospitalisations.

“The triple whammy of these infections on top of the backlog of routine care is . . . likely to put a severe strain on the NHS and its staff,” said Prof Azra Ghani, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and report contributor.

The analysis, published on Thursday, estimated that 15,000-60,000 people could die of flu this winter, while up to 40,000 children could be admitted to hospital with RSV.

However, the report’s authors stressed the “great uncertainty” of projections, which vary according to the degree to which immunity has fallen and the efficacy and uptake levels of the flu vaccine.

Last winter, deaths and hospitalisations from seasonal viruses fell to a record low as a result of public health measures to contain the pandemic.

But this year the pressure of seasonal illness, added to potentially hundreds of thousands of cases of coronavirus and ‘long Covid’ from the third wave, could “exacerbate pressures on the health and social care system”, the report said.

NHS waiting lists in England have reached more than 5m patients, while infection control measures have reduced hospital bed capacity by around 6 per cent. An 80,000 staff shortage remains unresolved.

“We always have winter pressures [in the NHS] but they’re going to have new elements this year, which we’ve got to think how to mitigate over the summer,” said Dame Anne Johnson, co-author of the report and a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at University College London.

The Academy of Medical Sciences report, which drew on the expertise of 29 leading scientists, urged policymakers to act quickly to widen diagnostic capacity to include rapid tests for flu and RSV, increase vaccine uptake alongside preparing for the autumn booster and flu jab programme, and strengthen financial support for those required to self-isolate.

UCL’s Johnson said there would be a “lot of logistics to deal with”, to ensure flu tests were processed quickly enough to allow for antivirals to be prescribed, and to establish whether the flu and Covid-19 vaccine can be delivered simultaneously in over-50s.

The report also called for “sufficient temporary funding” for the NHS “to allow for increased workforce over the summer, autumn and winter”.

Sir Stephen Holgate, professor of immunopharmacology at Southampton university, said: “All parts of society need to take action to head off the serious health risks we are facing now, and in the future.”