Moderna blames ‘teething problems’ for weak Covid-19 jab sales forecast
Moderna has downgraded the sales forecast for its Covid-19 vaccine this year, blaming delays in international shipping and temporary issues related to manufacturing capacity.
The US biotech said on Thursday it expects product sales of $15bn to $18bn in 2021, down from an earlier estimate of $20bn in August. The company now expects to deliver 700m to 800m doses this year of Spikevax — the brand name for its Covid-19 jab — compared to earlier estimates of between 800m to 1bn.
Moderna shares fell as much as 16 per cent in early trading after the disappointing guidance, which places it further behind its main Covid-19 vaccine rivals, Pfizer and BioNTech.
Consensus estimates from analysts had forecast full-year sales of $19.8bn.
“Key variables impacting output include longer delivery lead times for international shipments and exports that may shift deliveries to early 2022, temporary impact from expansion of fill/finish capacity and ramp up of product release to market,” Moderna said in a statement.
The underwhelming forecasts from Moderna, along with news that Merck’s easy-to-administer antiviral pill to treat Covid had received its first authorisation in the UK, sparked a wider sell-off in shares of vaccine makers. Shares of Novavax and BioNTech fell by more than 6 per cent in early trading, while Pfizer shares slipped 2.5 per cent.
“Merck got its first global approval already in UK today, which will continue to shift the market debate from vaccines versus treatment pills all while Covid infections continue to decline,” said Michael Yee, analyst at Jefferies.
Moderna said it would have fewer doses for delivery in 2021 than it had initially expected and had shifted some of these orders to delivery dates in 2022. A move to prioritise vaccine supplies to low-income countries through Covax — a global initiative aimed at equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines — and the African Union would also impact 2021 revenues, it said, since prices are lower for those sales.
Stéphane Bancel, Moderna chief executive, said he was confident that the company could overcome the “teething problems” it is experiencing with production and fix the short-term supply issues early in 2022.
“We will not rest until our vaccine is available to anyone who needs it, and we are working hard to ensure our vaccine is available in low-income countries with approximately 10 per cent of our 2021 volume and significantly more of our 2022 volume going to low-income countries,” he said.
Moderna has expanded rapidly over the past 18 months following its success in developing a messenger RNA (mRNA) Covid-19 vaccine, which is its only commercial product. But it has recently experienced challenges, including capacity constraints at its production facilities and a delay in regulatory approval for its vaccine in adolescents and children.
Bancel had warned in August that the drugmaker’s manufacturing capacity was “totally maxed out” for 2021 due to surging demand for its Covid-19 vaccine and it had stopped taking new orders.
Analysts said the lower guidance and the wide 2022 sales forecast range of $15bn to $18bn would put pressure on Moderna’s share price, which has more than tripled this year.
“Delays in vaccine delivery and the approval of Spikevax in adolescents and young children due to concerns over rare cases of heart inflammation are potential headwinds in late 2021 through to 2022,” said Davinderpreet Singh Mangat, senior analyst at Informa Pharma Intelligence.
Moderna’s delivery challenges stand in contrast to rival Pfizer, which this week lifted its 2021 sales forecast to $36bn, up from $33.5bn.
Moderna reported revenue of $5bn and diluted earnings per share of $7.70 for the third quarter, both well below analysts’ consensus forecasts.