Heatwave-linked deaths in Europe reported up 30% over past 20 years

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Scientists and health services are monitoring the upcoming European summer months for signs of another season of extreme heat, after finding that deaths linked to hot weather on the continent have risen 30 per cent over the past 20 years.

The 2023 year was the warmest on record in Europe, or the second warmest by a small margin depending on data sets used, the Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization concluded. It ranked as the hottest if Greenland and some other areas were included.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus Climate Service, said a record number of Europeans had been affected by heat stress and the continent’s largest wildfire last year.

Seasonable forecasts indicated that the coming June, July and August in Europe were also “more likely than not to be warmer than average for temperatures”.

But Burgess cautioned that this summer’s temperatures were also harder to predict because of the waning of the naturally occurring El Niño weather pattern that warms the Pacific Ocean. Evidence is emerging of the opposing La Niña system beginning to take effect, with cooler waters near Ecuador.

In the latest report on climate change in Europe, the scientists said 2023 saw a record number of days with “extreme heat stress” — equivalent to a “feels-like” temperature of more than 46C.

More than 40 per cent of southern Europe was affected by “strong”, “very strong” or “extreme heat” stress in July last year, it found.

During the so-called Cerberus heatwave last July, temperatures hit 47.3C in Sardinia and 48.8C in Sicily, while other parts of Italy, as well as Greece and Spain experienced consecutive days of more than 40C.

Deaths linked to hot weather increased in 94 per cent of the European regions monitored over the past two decades, they added.

Total mortality figures for 2023 are not yet available, but the scientists found there were almost 62,000 heat-related deaths across the continent in 2022.

Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent, with temperatures rising at about twice the global average rate. The three warmest years on record for Europe have all occurred since 2020. 

“Extreme heat causes the greatest mortality of all extreme weather,” said Chris Hewitt, director of the climate services branch at the WMO. As the world became hotter, it would put even further pressure on health services, he added.

The scientists said 23 of the 30 most severe heatwaves recorded in Europe since 1950 have occurred since 2000, with five in the past three years.

Álvaro Silva, a climatologist at the WMO, said that given the “increasing frequency and intensity of extreme events, especially heat-related events” in Europe, early-warning systems would become more important, while officials would need to factor these issues into urban planning decisions.

The report also found the average sea surface temperature in Europe was the highest on record.

The Atlantic Ocean west of Ireland and around the UK was particularly affected by an “extreme” — and in some areas “beyond extreme” — marine heatwave last June.

That month’s temperatures in the UK were a “standout”, the hottest on record by a margin of almost 1C, said Joel Hirschi, associate head of marine systems modelling at the National Oceanography Centre. These coincided with the development of an exceptional marine heatwave around the UK with water up to 5C warmer than normal, he noted.

As well as record air and sea temperatures, it was also wetter than usual in Europe last year. There was 7 per cent more precipitation than average for Europe as a whole, with river flows the highest on record for December.

Much of Europe also experienced fewer snow days than usual, while the Alps experienced “exceptional glacier ice loss in 2023” due to heatwaves.

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