Covid vaccines estimated to have prevented over 100,000 deaths in England

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More than 100,000 lives have been saved in England by the UK’s vaccination programme, the national public health agency said on Thursday.

With government advisers considering whether to extend the vaccine rollout to 12 to 15-year-olds, Public Health England’s weekly vaccine surveillance report estimated the vaccination scheme had so far directly averted between 102,500 and 109,500 deaths.

PHE said it calculated the total by comparing the estimated impact of vaccination on infection and mortality against a worst-case scenario where no vaccines and no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place to reduce infections and mortality.

Previous estimates had put the number between 91,700 and 98,700 deaths.

The UK has recorded more than 130,000 deaths during the pandemic.

With case rates rising more than 11 per cent over the past week and 38,000 new infections reported in the UK on Thursday, concern is growing about a further surge in cases, particularly among school-aged children when they return to classrooms early next month.

Even though a final decision about whether to vaccinate 12 to 15-year-olds has yet to be taken, the NHS has been asked to draw up plans to vaccinate that age group should the JCVI give the go-ahead.

However one JCVI member told the FT that an imminent vaccination campaign for teenagers was “not definite”, adding that the preparations by the NHS “[sounded] like provisional operational planning”.

Currently only members of this age group with specific health conditions, or who live with someone who is immunosuppressed, can be given the jab.

However, when the move to widen the programme to 16 and 17-year-olds was announced earlier this month, Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer, suggested the JCVI was “more likely rather than less likely” to expand the list of eligible 12 to 15-year-olds.

Calculating the balance of risk and benefit in this younger age group is particularly challenging. Children rarely suffer severe illness or die after contracting Covid-19.

However, data from the US have suggested that one possible side-effect of the Pfizer vaccine — the only vaccine currently approved for use among 12 to 15-year-olds — is myocarditis or inflammation of the heart muscle. This condition had occurred in about one in 100,000 boys aged 12 to 17 after a first dose, rising to about 1 in 15,000 after the second, although most had recovered quickly.

On Thursday morning, the JCVI met to review the latest evidence on rare cases of severe heart inflammation among adolescents who have received the Pfizer jab in the US and Israel.

In an interview with ITV News on Thursday, Gavin Williamson, education secretary, refused to confirm that youngsters would be offered the jab but made clear that, if the programme were to be expanded to that group, their parents’ consent would be needed.

Williamson said: “If JVCI do reach a decision that children should be able to receive a vaccine, parental consent would always be asked before they receive that vaccine.”

The Department of Health and Social Care said: “No decisions have been made on vaccinating 12 to 15-year-olds. Ministers have not yet received further advice from the JCVI on this cohort. We continue to plan for a range of scenarios to ensure we are prepared for all eventualities.”