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The Australian state of Victoria needs to fully vaccinate at least 90 per cent of its population if it wants to avoid re-entering lockdown, researchers at the University of Melbourne said on Tuesday.

Under the government’s national roadmap, the country will reopen once 80 per cent of its population over the age of 16 is fully vaccinated. The state of Victoria’s roadmap, released Sunday, differs slightly, advocating vaccinating 80 per cent of those aged 12 and over.

Australia’s vaccination rate lags other developed countries, with only 38 per cent of the population fully jabbed, according to the Financial Times’ tracker.

The Melbourne researchers, however, modelled 432 scenarios using different combinations of vaccine coverage, travel restrictions, social distancing restrictions and reproduction numbers for the virus.

In the “default strategy”, where the state unlocks once 80 per cent of its population aged 18 and over are fully vaccinated, it would have to re-enter lockdown for 39 per cent of the following year to keep annual Covid deaths at a “moderate level”, they concluded.

A second “upgraded strategy” of vaccinating 80 per cent of residents aged five and over would reduce deaths but still see the state spend 19 per cent of the year in lockdown.

A final, “innovative strategy” reduces time spent in lockdown to zero, but would require 90 per cent vaccine coverage of both adults and children. It would also rely on future innovations such as better ventilation in indoor spaces and more effective track and trace apps.

Much of Victoria, including the state capital Melbourne, is under lockdown, as are parts of New South Wales. Australia has proposed moving from a Covid elimination strategy to learning to “live with the virus” once higher vaccination rates are achieved. State governments, however, disagree on what level of vaccine coverage should be reached, and which restrictions should stay in place in the long term.