COP26 finale: five things to watch

As the COP26 climate summit enters its last days, negotiators from nearly 200 countries are working round the clock to try to agree on the final texts that will be published at the end of the two-week conference.

Amid this rising intensity, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson heads back to Glasgow on Wednesday to try to move things along.

Following headlines on coal and finance agreements during the opening days, and celebrity speeches from former US president Barack Obama and youth activist Greta Thunberg, the negotiations that typically dominate the end of a COP summit can seem technical and arcane.

But they are also a geopolitical minefield, often opening up surprising disagreements, as well as unexpected alliances, among the 197 countries that approved the Paris climate accord at the COP21 in 2015.

So what exactly are they negotiating? And what are the biggest sticking points? Here’s what to watch as the summit draws to a close.

What rules will be imposed to implement the Paris climate accord?

One task of COP26 is to iron out the rule book for how the Paris accord will be implemented. This includes how countries will report their greenhouse gas emissions — and how those reports will be verified.

Another central issue is whether all countries should be required to set shorter than five-year climate targets, or 10-year targets for developing countries.

Will the UN set up a global carbon market?

There is a section of the Paris accord, known as “Article Six”, that aims to set up a framework for a global market in carbon offsets.

Carbon offsets represent a unit of carbon that has been permanently avoided or removed from the atmosphere, and can compensate for emissions elsewhere.

In theory, the market in offsets could allow rich countries to pay developing countries for offsets, with a corresponding accounting mechanism to avoid double counting.

If the rules agreed in Glasgow are robust enough to prevent low-quality offsets from the system, and avoid double counting any reductions being made, then advocates say a global carbon market could help speed emissions cuts.

However, if the rules agreed contain loopholes, then the system could be ripe for fraud and abuse. That was what happened the last time something similar was attempted, with the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto protocol in 1997.

Will it all be enough to limit rising temperatures to 1.5C?

Even with all the new pledges made in Glasgow, the world is still on track for around 2.7C by the end of the century. That means the COP26 slogan “keep 1.5 alive” — a reference to limiting warming to 1.5C as the point under the Paris accord that is crucial to staving off the worse effects of climate change — is looking increasingly difficult to achieve.

The 2015 Paris accord contains a “ratchet” mechanism by which countries are supposed to improve their climate targets every five years.

The Glasgow summit was the deadline for the first “ratchet” after the Paris pact was signed, and 152 countries formally submitted new targets to the UN ahead of the conference.

Even so, those pledges will not cut emissions fast enough to meet the temperature targets. The pledges will only just about manage to hold emissions steady during this decade, according to analysis by the UN Environment Programme.

Being on track for 1.5C would mean halving emissions this decade.

For this reason a number of countries, including the UK, US, and EU, are pushing for countries to come back with updated pledges by 2023. That proposal, which will be debated in coming days, is proving highly controversial.

What’s the role of the UK and what will be the final text from COP26?

As the host of COP26, the UK holds the presidency, a role that requires significant diplomatic finesse.

At the end of the summit, several texts will be published that have been agreed on by all parties. The most significant of these will be the “cover text”, which is a summary statement from the UK presidency, agreed on by all parties.

Although the presidency is technically a neutral role, designed to bring together all the parties in the UN system, it can have a big influence on the outcome of the negotiations.

This year, the UK has put an emphasis on increasing climate ambition and on limiting warming to 1.5C, which it hopes will be reflected in the final “cover text”.

This document will be the subject of intense wrangling in coming days, as so-called “high ambition countries” including the UK and EU try to get other nations to come back sooner with updated targets.

When does COP end?

In theory, COP is due to wrap up by 6pm local time on Friday — but no COP has ended on time.

Alok Sharma, the COP26 president, told a Tuesday press briefing that he stood by the Friday deadline: “There is a sense of urgency and yes, I would very much like us to finish at the time that has been set out.”

While official statements from the UK delegation suggest they will try to be punctual, many seasoned negotiators say a Saturday or Sunday finish is not unlikely.

Climate Capital

Where climate change meets business, markets and politics. Explore the FT’s coverage here.

Are you curious about the FT’s environmental sustainability commitments? Find out more about our science-based targets here