Canada election dents Justin Trudeau’s credibility

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Justin Trudeau, re-elected this week for his third term as Canada’s prime minister, thanked voters for sending his Liberal Party “back to work with a clear mandate”. But in failing to secure the majority Trudeau sought when he called the snap election two years ahead of schedule, and instead polling the lowest popular vote of any winning party in Canada’s federal elections, that mandate is anything but clear.

The Conservative opposition leader, Erin O’Toole, was more on the mark when he dubbed the election a “waste of time and money”. The most expensive election in Canada’s history, at a cost of C$600m, delivered little change when it comes to parliament’s composition. Instead, the price of Trudeau’s miscalculation in calling an unnecessary ballot is to make life more difficult for himself as leader of a minority government pushing through ambitious reforms around climate change, affordable housing and childcare.

The election has proved a reckoning for both party leaders. Trudeau intended it as a referendum on his leadership during the pandemic, and it was — just not the way he envisaged. He emerges in the same parliamentary position he was before, but with his political credibility dented.

He called the election on August 15, just after ordering federal public servants to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19, and the same day Kabul fell. In the context of the pandemic at home and geopolitical challenges abroad, a vote was not what Canadians wanted: most believed the election was not necessary, according to a poll during the campaign. 

The previous minority government was working relatively well, even during a health emergency. While the Liberals have made marginal gains in the election, they are still short of the 170 seats needed for a majority. The difference is that they must now reach across the aisle after a month of sniping on the campaign trail. The party still seems inextricably linked to Trudeau, his image and family brand. The lustre on his star power has inevitably dimmed since he came to power in 2015 promising “sunny ways”.

O’Toole, meanwhile, is left presiding over a disappointed party that scented an unlikely victory just a few days ago. It too has ended up largely where it started out last month. The move to the centre ground under O’Toole leaves an even more existential question regarding what the party stands for.

O’Toole’s national profile has grown during the campaign. A relative unknown — another reason Trudeau called the election — he became a serious contender who led the Conservatives to win the popular vote, even if that did not translate to more seats under Canada’s first-past-the-post system. 

That innate centrism and the electoral system ensured that the People’s Party of Canada, libertarian anti-vaccine populists, returned no seats despite winning around 5 per cent of votes. There is some evidence, however, that the PPC may have cost Conservatives seats in some ridings. That could prompt debate on the rightwing of the party over O’Toole’s more compassionate conservatism. Allowing electoral disappointment to lead to the populist route seen south of the border would be unfortunate and out of step with the centrist consensus that still holds in Canada. 

Ultimately it is that consensus that will save Trudeau. As sweeping as his reforms may seem, and even in the face of post-election partisan bickering, he should be able to push them through parliament. That was as true a month ago as it is today. He did not need an election to prove it.