Covax cuts vaccine delivery forecasts to developing world by 25%

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Covax has slashed its forecasts for Covid-19 vaccine deliveries to the developing world by about 25 per cent this year after India’s export ban, manufacturing problems and delays in approvals of new shots knocked the programme off track. 

Deliveries under the scheme to provide vaccines to low- and middle-income countries are ramping up, with 1.1bn doses set to be available for the rest of the year.

But the World Health Organization-backed programme will fall short of its target of delivering 2bn vaccines this year, with a total of 1.4bn shots. Some 200m of the doses are reserved for so-called “self-financing” countries with higher-income populations.

Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at the WHO, said there were still about 10,000 deaths a day from Covid-19 that she called “entirely preventable” if vaccines were shared more equally. 

She said there would be enough supplies to vaccinate the world’s healthcare workers and elderly by the end of September and bring down mortality significantly. 

“I am very concerned that some countries are talking about boosters when there isn’t a lot of evidence that vaccines are failing to protect people from severe disease,” she said.

Covax is now set to hit 2bn doses by the end of the first quarter of next year.

The forecast has been cut for three main reasons. In March, India stopped the Serum Institute, the world’s largest vaccine maker, from exporting the doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccines that were due to be sent to developing countries. Covax is in talks with the Indian government about lifting the ban. 

The second setback has been disruption in manufacturing, primarily for Johnson & Johnson and the AstraZeneca vaccines, including problems at the Emergent BioSolutions plant in the US. The third cause of delay is Novavax and Clover vaccines having not yet received approval.

The WHO extended its moratorium on booster shots to the end of the year after Covax cut its forecasts. The Geneva-based body had previously called for a moratorium on third shots until the end of September in order to cover at least 10 per cent of the population in every country in the world. 

Vaccine makers have argued there is now enough supply for western countries to both give boosters and share shots with the rest of the world. But boosters would still have a significant impact on supply: life sciences analytics firm Airfinity forecasts that if developed countries gave boosters to everyone who has been vaccinated, there would be 1.1bn doses available. This could rise to 2.5bn if they only gave third doses to people aged over 50. 

Seth Berkley, chief executive of Gavi, the vaccine alliance that is one of the partners behind Covax, called on countries to give up their place in the queue at manufacturers if they have enough jabs for their domestic needs. The measure, called “queue swapping”, would allow an acceleration of vaccination in the developing world while allowing western countries to receive the doses they had ordered later if they need them for boosters. 

“This is of course bad for the whole world, as we have seen the dreadful consequences that take hold when the virus is left unchecked. We cannot afford not to vaccinate healthcare workers and elderly around the world,” he said. 

He added that it was important for countries to “follow the science” on third doses of vaccines, arguing that there were not enough vaccines to experiment and it was necessary to “stick to where they are needed”. 

Richard Hatchett, chief executive of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, another Covax backer, said even if it became apparent that boosters provided value, it would be an “incremental protection” that would not compare to how useful these shots would be as primary doses to the unvaccinated. 

“Doses that are shared now save more lives than doses that become available in six months,” he said. 

Additional reporting by Donato Paolo Mancini in Rome